The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Aug 1?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 33° to 43°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 33° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°.

14 days out the models said 33–43; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-17 — 37° — — 44° — — 37–44°
14d · 2026-07-18 33° 39° 36° — 43° — — 33–43°
13d · 2026-07-19 35° 32° 39° — 46° — — 32–46°
12d · 2026-07-20 35° 38° 35° — 44° — — 35–44°
11d · 2026-07-21 37° 33° 33° — 46° — — 33–46°
10d · 2026-07-22 37° 34° 32° — 45° — — 32–45°
9d · 2026-07-23 39° 33° 36° 36° 40° — — 33–40°
8d · 2026-07-24 33° 37° 39° 29° 34° — — 29–39°
7d · 2026-07-25 35° 35° 33° 34° 39° — — 33–39°
6d · 2026-07-26 32° 34° 35° 35° 37° 36° 36° 32–37°
5d · 2026-07-27 32° 30° 36° 34° 33° 31° 38° 30–38°
4d · 2026-07-28 33° 34° 36° 35° 35° 34° 37° 33–37°
3d · 2026-07-29 33° 34° 35° 34° 33° 35° 35° 33–35°
2d · 2026-07-30 34° 34° 35° 34° 37° 35° 36° 34–37°
1d · 2026-07-31 33° 33° 34° 33° 33° 34° 35° 33–35°
0d · 2026-08-01 33° 33° 33° 34° 34° 34° 34° 33–34°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.