Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Tue Jul 28?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
11 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Tue Jul 28 high anywhere from 92° to 119°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 104°. The day verified at 103° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Jul 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-07-17 | 102° | 92° | 108° | — | 119° | — | — | 92–119° |
| 10d · 2026-07-18 | 92° | 93° | 104° | — | 116° | — | — | 92–116° |
| 9d · 2026-07-19 | 103° | 96° | 101° | 102° | 105° | — | — | 96–105° |
| 8d · 2026-07-20 | 105° | 100° | 106° | 105° | 111° | — | — | 100–111° |
| 7d · 2026-07-21 | 105° | 101° | 106° | 104° | 110° | 108° | — | 101–110° |
| 6d · 2026-07-22 | 104° | 101° | 108° | 106° | 110° | 107° | 106° | 101–110° |
| 5d · 2026-07-23 | 103° | 100° | 108° | 105° | 108° | 106° | 108° | 100–108° |
| 4d · 2026-07-24 | 102° | 100° | 108° | 105° | 112° | 101° | 107° | 100–112° |
| 3d · 2026-07-25 | 101° | 101° | 107° | 103° | 111° | 103° | 104° | 101–111° |
| 2d · 2026-07-26 | 101° | 101° | 105° | 103° | 106° | 102° | 105° | 101–106° |
| 1d · 2026-07-27 | 100° | 104° | 104° | 103° | 105° | 102° | 107° | 100–107° |
| actual | 103° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.