The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Tue Jul 28?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

11 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Tue Jul 28 high anywhere from 34° to 46°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 39°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

11 days out the models said 34–46; it hit 39. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Jul 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
11d · 2026-07-17 39° 34° 42° — 46° — — 34–46°
10d · 2026-07-18 33° 38° 40° — 47° — — 33–47°
9d · 2026-07-19 39° 35° 39° 39° 40° — — 35–40°
8d · 2026-07-20 40° 38° 41° 40° 46° — — 38–46°
7d · 2026-07-21 41° 38° 41° 40° 43° — — 38–43°
6d · 2026-07-22 40° 38° 42° 41° 43° 42° 41° 38–43°
5d · 2026-07-23 39° 38° 42° 41° 42° 41° 42° 38–42°
4d · 2026-07-24 39° 37° 42° 40° 44° 40° 42° 37–44°
3d · 2026-07-25 38° 38° 42° 39° 44° 39° 40° 38–44°
2d · 2026-07-26 38° 38° 41° 39° 43° 40° 40° 38–43°
1d · 2026-07-27 38° 40° 40° 39° 40° 40° 41° 38–41°
0d · 2026-07-28 38° 39° 39° 38° 39° 39° 40° 38–40°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.