Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Thu Oct 1?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 75° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 76° against the OKC observations, with 1.26 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 78° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 78–86° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 81° | 90° | 75° | — | 87° | — | — | 75–90° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 79° | 82° | 86° | — | 83° | — | — | 79–86° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 73° | 80° | 73° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–80° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 71° | 77° | 73° | — | 89° | — | — | 71–89° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 87° | 68° | 81° | — | 85° | — | — | 68–87° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 80° | 68° | 87° | 80° | 79° | — | — | 68–87° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 82° | 70° | 73° | 70° | 75° | — | — | 70–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 79° | 77° | 76° | 79° | 80° | 83° | — | 76–83° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 75° | 81° | 77° | 78° | 79° | 77° | 85° | 75–85° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 73° | 72° | 77° | 72° | 78° | 74° | 76° | 72–78° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 75° | 72° | 78° | 72° | 80° | 75° | 85° | 72–85° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 75° | 74° | 79° | 74° | 82° | 79° | 85° | 74–85° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 76° | 75° | 79° | 72° | 82° | 86° | 86° | 72–86° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 76° | 74° | 79° | 77° | 79° | 81° | 81° | 74–81° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.