Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Wed Sep 30?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Wed Sep 30 high anywhere from 80° to 98°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 86° against the OKC observations, with 0.86 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 4.0°. ECMWF ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-15 | — | 92° | — | — | 82° | — | — | 82–92° |
| 14d · 2026-09-16 | 80° | 80° | 84° | — | 98° | — | — | 80–98° |
| 13d · 2026-09-17 | 77° | 80° | 71° | — | 85° | — | — | 71–85° |
| 12d · 2026-09-18 | 86° | 80° | 83° | — | 84° | — | — | 80–86° |
| 11d · 2026-09-19 | 71° | 78° | 72° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-20 | 70° | 75° | 70° | — | 93° | — | — | 70–93° |
| 9d · 2026-09-21 | 79° | 71° | 77° | 73° | 82° | — | — | 71–82° |
| 8d · 2026-09-22 | 78° | 68° | 77° | 75° | 77° | — | — | 68–78° |
| 7d · 2026-09-23 | 89° | 71° | 75° | 71° | 73° | 82° | — | 71–89° |
| 6d · 2026-09-24 | 86° | 88° | 81° | 79° | 82° | 86° | 78° | 78–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-25 | 78° | 88° | 82° | 80° | 89° | 87° | 80° | 78–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-26 | 80° | 78° | 86° | 80° | 82° | 80° | 89° | 78–89° |
| 3d · 2026-09-27 | 81° | 80° | 85° | 84° | 83° | 83° | 82° | 80–85° |
| 2d · 2026-09-28 | 81° | 80° | 88° | 82° | 89° | 82° | 82° | 80–89° |
| 1d · 2026-09-29 | 79° | 79° | 78° | 82° | 81° | 79° | 82° | 78–82° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.