Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Fri Jul 31?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 94° to 112°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 106°. The day verified at 107° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.07 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-07-17 | 94° | 102° | 107° | — | 112° | — | — | 94–112° |
| 13d · 2026-07-18 | 88° | 99° | 92° | — | 112° | — | — | 88–112° |
| 12d · 2026-07-19 | 91° | 97° | 99° | — | 113° | — | — | 91–113° |
| 11d · 2026-07-20 | 92° | 102° | 97° | — | 114° | — | — | 92–114° |
| 10d · 2026-07-21 | 93° | 91° | 107° | — | 114° | — | — | 91–114° |
| 9d · 2026-07-22 | 94° | 92° | 99° | 100° | 110° | — | — | 92–110° |
| 8d · 2026-07-23 | 103° | 101° | 107° | 99° | 109° | — | — | 99–109° |
| 7d · 2026-07-24 | 87° | 100° | 109° | 98° | 111° | 94° | — | 87–111° |
| 6d · 2026-07-25 | 98° | 102° | 105° | 107° | 111° | 107° | 106° | 98–111° |
| 5d · 2026-07-26 | 98° | 100° | 108° | 104° | 112° | 108° | 110° | 98–112° |
| 4d · 2026-07-27 | 99° | 104° | 108° | 102° | 106° | 109° | 108° | 99–109° |
| 3d · 2026-07-28 | 100° | 102° | 102° | 100° | 108° | 109° | 106° | 100–109° |
| 2d · 2026-07-29 | 101° | 103° | 96° | 101° | 105° | 108° | 98° | 96–108° |
| 1d · 2026-07-30 | 101° | 103° | 107° | 102° | 109° | 108° | 106° | 101–109° |
| actual | 107° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.