The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Fri Jul 31?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 33° to 47°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 41°. The day verified at 42° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 1.8 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 4° cold.

14 days out the models said 33–47; it hit 42. GEM led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
14d · 2026-07-17 33° 36° 42° — 47° — — 33–47°
13d · 2026-07-18 31° 40° 34° — 44° — — 31–44°
12d · 2026-07-19 33° 36° 37° — 45° — — 33–45°
11d · 2026-07-20 36° 39° 36° — 44° — — 36–44°
10d · 2026-07-21 34° 32° 41° — 46° — — 32–46°
9d · 2026-07-22 37° 36° 37° 38° 44° — — 36–44°
8d · 2026-07-23 39° 37° 42° 37° 43° — — 37–43°
7d · 2026-07-24 30° 37° 43° 37° 44° — — 30–44°
6d · 2026-07-25 37° 38° 41° 42° 44° 39° 41° 37–44°
5d · 2026-07-26 37° 37° 42° 40° 44° 40° 43° 37–44°
4d · 2026-07-27 37° 40° 41° 39° 41° 42° 42° 37–42°
3d · 2026-07-28 38° 40° 42° 39° 42° 43° 41° 38–43°
2d · 2026-07-29 38° 40° 40° 37° 43° 41° 38° 37–43°
1d · 2026-07-30 38° 40° 39° 40° 42° 42° 41° 38–42°
0d · 2026-07-31 38° 38° 40° 41° 42° 41° 42° 38–42°
actual 42°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.