Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Fri Sep 25?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Fri Sep 25 high anywhere from 74° to 103°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 92° against the OKC observations, with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. ICON ran 10° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-10 | — | 90° | — | — | 99° | — | — | 90–99° |
| 14d · 2026-09-11 | 87° | 78° | 74° | — | 103° | — | — | 74–103° |
| 13d · 2026-09-12 | 97° | 75° | 80° | — | 95° | — | — | 75–97° |
| 12d · 2026-09-13 | 91° | 91° | 82° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 11d · 2026-09-14 | 76° | 90° | 86° | — | 91° | — | — | 76–91° |
| 10d · 2026-09-15 | 90° | 95° | 83° | — | 98° | — | — | 83–98° |
| 9d · 2026-09-16 | 73° | 79° | 72° | 80° | 94° | — | — | 72–94° |
| 8d · 2026-09-17 | 80° | 81° | 72° | 84° | 84° | — | — | 72–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-18 | 80° | 82° | 80° | 80° | 76° | — | — | 76–82° |
| 6d · 2026-09-19 | 74° | 79° | 76° | 88° | 79° | 84° | 87° | 74–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-20 | 73° | 84° | 92° | 83° | 95° | 87° | 90° | 73–95° |
| 4d · 2026-09-21 | 74° | 85° | 92° | 87° | 91° | 89° | 89° | 74–92° |
| 3d · 2026-09-22 | 75° | 83° | 89° | 86° | 91° | 80° | 86° | 75–91° |
| 2d · 2026-09-23 | 78° | 80° | 80° | 84° | 81° | 80° | 87° | 78–87° |
| 1d · 2026-09-24 | 83° | 85° | 88° | 87° | 91° | 82° | 89° | 82–91° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.