Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Aug 15?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Aug 15 high anywhere from 86° to 110°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 101°. The day verified at 101° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.02 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. UKMO ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-31 | — | 90° | — | — | 109° | — | — | 90–109° |
| 14d · 2026-08-01 | 104° | 86° | 103° | — | 110° | — | — | 86–110° |
| 13d · 2026-08-02 | 96° | 93° | 104° | — | 107° | — | — | 93–107° |
| 12d · 2026-08-03 | 94° | 98° | 104° | — | 108° | — | — | 94–108° |
| 11d · 2026-08-04 | 101° | 102° | 94° | — | 109° | — | — | 94–109° |
| 10d · 2026-08-05 | 100° | 99° | 98° | — | 107° | — | — | 98–107° |
| 9d · 2026-08-06 | 89° | 100° | 76° | 93° | 104° | — | — | 76–104° |
| 8d · 2026-08-07 | 101° | 101° | 98° | 92° | 109° | — | — | 92–109° |
| 7d · 2026-08-08 | 99° | 101° | 99° | 98° | 109° | 106° | — | 98–109° |
| 6d · 2026-08-09 | 101° | 101° | 102° | 100° | 106° | 104° | 96° | 96–106° |
| 5d · 2026-08-10 | 102° | 102° | 102° | 102° | 107° | 104° | 102° | 102–107° |
| 4d · 2026-08-11 | 101° | 102° | 102° | 102° | 108° | 104° | 102° | 101–108° |
| 3d · 2026-08-12 | 101° | 102° | 102° | 101° | 106° | 103° | 102° | 101–106° |
| 2d · 2026-08-13 | 102° | 102° | 102° | 102° | 103° | 104° | 104° | 102–104° |
| 1d · 2026-08-14 | 101° | 102° | 101° | 101° | 101° | 102° | 103° | 101–103° |
| actual | 101° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.