Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Wed Sep 23?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Wed Sep 23 high anywhere from 68° to 97°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 93° against the OKC observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.9°. ECMWF ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-08 | — | 88° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 88–91° |
| 14d · 2026-09-09 | 68° | 92° | 79° | — | 97° | — | — | 68–97° |
| 13d · 2026-09-10 | 80° | 84° | 78° | — | 91° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 12d · 2026-09-11 | 82° | 75° | 68° | — | 82° | — | — | 68–82° |
| 11d · 2026-09-12 | 96° | 87° | 75° | — | 93° | — | — | 75–96° |
| 10d · 2026-09-13 | 87° | 86° | 78° | — | 102° | — | — | 78–102° |
| 9d · 2026-09-14 | 75° | 91° | 77° | 86° | 88° | — | — | 75–91° |
| 8d · 2026-09-15 | 90° | 93° | 89° | 79° | 96° | — | — | 79–96° |
| 7d · 2026-09-16 | 81° | 80° | 82° | 94° | 90° | 90° | — | 80–94° |
| 6d · 2026-09-17 | 82° | 76° | 74° | 83° | 71° | 76° | 83° | 71–83° |
| 5d · 2026-09-18 | 77° | 77° | 80° | 81° | 86° | 85° | 87° | 77–87° |
| 4d · 2026-09-19 | 86° | 78° | 86° | 83° | 90° | 79° | 86° | 78–90° |
| 3d · 2026-09-20 | 86° | 81° | 89° | 89° | 92° | 87° | 90° | 81–92° |
| 2d · 2026-09-21 | 84° | 82° | 87° | 88° | 90° | 88° | 91° | 82–91° |
| 1d · 2026-09-22 | 86° | 86° | 85° | 90° | 91° | 89° | 90° | 85–91° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.