Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Aug 17?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Aug 17 high anywhere from 88° to 109°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 95° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-02 | — | 102° | — | — | 108° | — | — | 102–108° |
| 14d · 2026-08-03 | 90° | 88° | 105° | — | 109° | — | — | 88–109° |
| 13d · 2026-08-04 | 99° | 100° | 84° | — | 111° | — | — | 84–111° |
| 12d · 2026-08-05 | 101° | 89° | 99° | — | 109° | — | — | 89–109° |
| 11d · 2026-08-06 | 91° | 103° | 91° | — | 108° | — | — | 91–108° |
| 10d · 2026-08-07 | 102° | 100° | 104° | — | 109° | — | — | 100–109° |
| 9d · 2026-08-08 | 98° | 100° | 99° | 100° | 110° | — | — | 98–110° |
| 8d · 2026-08-09 | 100° | 96° | 106° | 103° | 111° | — | — | 96–111° |
| 7d · 2026-08-10 | 105° | 98° | 104° | 104° | 113° | 106° | — | 98–113° |
| 6d · 2026-08-11 | 101° | 104° | 103° | 103° | 108° | 96° | 104° | 96–108° |
| 5d · 2026-08-12 | 96° | 101° | 95° | 103° | 108° | 108° | 98° | 95–108° |
| 4d · 2026-08-13 | 94° | 99° | 99° | 92° | 110° | 96° | 101° | 92–110° |
| 3d · 2026-08-14 | 93° | 95° | 98° | 91° | 111° | 92° | 103° | 91–111° |
| 2d · 2026-08-15 | 94° | 97° | 100° | 99° | 97° | 97° | 101° | 94–101° |
| 1d · 2026-08-16 | 94° | 96° | 98° | 97° | 101° | 94° | 99° | 94–101° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.