Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sun Aug 16?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Aug 16 high anywhere from 98° to 111°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 103°. The day verified at 103° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-01 | — | 86° | — | — | 110° | — | — | 86–110° |
| 14d · 2026-08-02 | 98° | 100° | 104° | — | 111° | — | — | 98–111° |
| 13d · 2026-08-03 | 92° | 88° | 104° | — | 106° | — | — | 88–106° |
| 12d · 2026-08-04 | 103° | 92° | 90° | — | 109° | — | — | 90–109° |
| 11d · 2026-08-05 | 100° | 94° | 101° | — | 107° | — | — | 94–107° |
| 10d · 2026-08-06 | 87° | 101° | 80° | — | 106° | — | — | 80–106° |
| 9d · 2026-08-07 | 100° | 99° | 93° | 96° | 110° | — | — | 93–110° |
| 8d · 2026-08-08 | 94° | 102° | 96° | 98° | 107° | — | — | 94–107° |
| 7d · 2026-08-09 | 100° | 102° | 104° | 102° | 108° | 105° | — | 100–108° |
| 6d · 2026-08-10 | 104° | 102° | 104° | 103° | 111° | 107° | 101° | 101–111° |
| 5d · 2026-08-11 | 104° | 103° | 105° | 104° | 109° | 106° | 102° | 102–109° |
| 4d · 2026-08-12 | 102° | 102° | 105° | 103° | 108° | 106° | 104° | 102–108° |
| 3d · 2026-08-13 | 102° | 102° | 105° | 102° | 107° | 107° | 103° | 102–107° |
| 2d · 2026-08-14 | 101° | 100° | 105° | 102° | 102° | 103° | 104° | 100–105° |
| 1d · 2026-08-15 | 100° | 102° | 104° | 103° | 105° | 105° | 103° | 100–105° |
| actual | 103° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.