Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Sep 28?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Sep 28 high anywhere from 80° to 100°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 91° against the OKC observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-13 | — | 67° | — | — | 66° | — | — | 66–67° |
| 14d · 2026-09-14 | 80° | 96° | 88° | — | 100° | — | — | 80–100° |
| 13d · 2026-09-15 | 85° | 94° | 79° | — | 98° | — | — | 79–98° |
| 12d · 2026-09-16 | 77° | 86° | 80° | — | 88° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 11d · 2026-09-17 | 75° | 89° | 81° | — | 90° | — | — | 75–90° |
| 10d · 2026-09-18 | 79° | 76° | 92° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–92° |
| 9d · 2026-09-19 | 83° | 91° | 71° | 79° | 85° | — | — | 71–91° |
| 8d · 2026-09-20 | 83° | 94° | 82° | 75° | 91° | — | — | 75–94° |
| 7d · 2026-09-21 | 82° | 96° | 92° | 83° | 96° | 96° | — | 82–96° |
| 6d · 2026-09-22 | 88° | 92° | 91° | 90° | 85° | 82° | — | 82–92° |
| 5d · 2026-09-23 | 89° | 88° | 82° | 92° | 98° | 94° | 89° | 82–98° |
| 4d · 2026-09-24 | 89° | 86° | 84° | 91° | 99° | 87° | 90° | 84–99° |
| 3d · 2026-09-25 | 87° | 86° | 85° | 89° | 95° | 89° | 89° | 85–95° |
| 2d · 2026-09-26 | 86° | 84° | 85° | 86° | 94° | 87° | 90° | 84–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-27 | 85° | 84° | 85° | 89° | 91° | 86° | 90° | 84–91° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.