Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Thu Sep 10?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 92° to 107°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 85° against the OKC observations, with 0.1 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 10° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 77° | — | — | 108° | — | — | 77–108° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 100° | 98° | 92° | — | 107° | — | — | 92–107° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 98° | 95° | 96° | — | 107° | — | — | 95–107° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 99° | 91° | 97° | — | 103° | — | — | 91–103° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 95° | 94° | 96° | — | 105° | — | — | 94–105° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 94° | 95° | 101° | — | 109° | — | — | 94–109° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 97° | 97° | 98° | 99° | 105° | — | — | 97–105° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 100° | 96° | 99° | 100° | 99° | — | — | 96–100° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 97° | 98° | 103° | 97° | 106° | 98° | — | 97–106° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 88° | 95° | 100° | 88° | 104° | 103° | 90° | 88–104° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 89° | 82° | 89° | 86° | 98° | 99° | 101° | 82–101° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 91° | 91° | 85° | 94° | 97° | 93° | 90° | 85–97° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 86° | 84° | 89° | 90° | 85° | 85° | 91° | 84–91° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 87° | 82° | 90° | 82° | 84° | 85° | 89° | 82–90° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 85° | 85° | 85° | 86° | 95° | 86° | 87° | 85–95° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.