Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Thu Sep 10?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 34° to 42°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 30°. The day verified at 29° against the OKC observations, with 2.5 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 25° | — | — | 42° | — | — | 25–42° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 38° | 37° | 34° | — | 42° | — | — | 34–42° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 37° | 35° | 35° | — | 42° | — | — | 35–42° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 37° | 33° | 36° | — | 40° | — | — | 33–40° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 35° | 34° | 36° | — | 40° | — | — | 34–40° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 34° | 35° | 39° | — | 43° | — | — | 34–43° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 36° | 36° | 37° | 37° | 40° | — | — | 36–40° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 38° | 35° | 37° | 38° | 37° | — | — | 35–38° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 36° | 36° | 40° | 36° | 41° | 36° | — | 36–41° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 31° | 35° | 38° | 31° | 40° | 40° | 32° | 31–40° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 31° | 28° | 31° | 30° | 37° | 37° | 38° | 28–38° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 33° | 33° | 29° | 35° | 36° | 34° | 32° | 29–36° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 30° | 29° | 32° | 32° | 29° | 29° | 33° | 29–33° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 31° | 28° | 32° | 28° | 29° | 30° | 31° | 28–32° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 30° | 29° | 29° | 30° | 35° | 30° | 31° | 29–35° |
| actual | 29° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.