The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sun Sep 6?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 23° to 43°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 1° cold.

14 days out the models said 23–43; it hit 39. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-22 — 37° — — 39° — — 37–39°
14d · 2026-08-23 38° 23° 40° — 43° — — 23–43°
13d · 2026-08-24 35° 36° 26° — 38° — — 26–38°
12d · 2026-08-25 24° 31° 30° — 38° — — 24–38°
11d · 2026-08-26 26° 38° 38° — 42° — — 26–42°
10d · 2026-08-27 40° 27° 39° — 41° — — 27–41°
9d · 2026-08-28 35° 37° 38° 38° 42° — — 35–42°
8d · 2026-08-29 37° 31° 37° 36° 39° — — 31–39°
7d · 2026-08-30 37° 36° 38° 37° 40° — — 36–40°
6d · 2026-08-31 38° 36° 38° 38° 39° 39° 38° 36–39°
5d · 2026-09-01 37° 37° 37° 38° 41° 39° 38° 37–41°
4d · 2026-09-02 37° 36° 38° 37° 38° 39° 38° 36–39°
3d · 2026-09-03 37° 37° 38° 37° 39° 39° 37° 37–39°
2d · 2026-09-04 38° 37° 37° 37° 39° 38° 37° 37–39°
1d · 2026-09-05 38° 38° 38° 37° 40° 38° 37° 37–40°
0d · 2026-09-06 38° 38° 38° 38° 39° 38° 38° 38–39°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.