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Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sun Sep 6?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 27° to 43°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.7°. UKMO ran 1° cool.

14 days out the models said 27–43; it hit 39. ICON led (off 0.7°C); UKMO ran 1°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-22 — 36° — — 39° — — 36–39°
14d · 2026-08-23 38° 27° 40° — 43° — — 27–43°
13d · 2026-08-24 35° 25° 26° — 38° — — 25–38°
12d · 2026-08-25 24° 34° 30° — 38° — — 24–38°
11d · 2026-08-26 26° 38° 38° — 42° — — 26–42°
10d · 2026-08-27 40° 37° 39° — 41° — — 37–41°
9d · 2026-08-28 35° 37° 38° 38° 42° — — 35–42°
8d · 2026-08-29 37° 29° 37° 36° 39° — — 29–39°
7d · 2026-08-30 37° 36° 38° 37° 40° 39° — 36–40°
6d · 2026-08-31 38° 36° 38° 38° 39° 39° 38° 36–39°
5d · 2026-09-01 37° 37° 38° 38° 42° 40° 38° 37–42°
4d · 2026-09-02 37° 36° 37° 37° 38° 39° 38° 36–39°
3d · 2026-09-03 37° 37° 38° 38° 40° 39° 37° 37–40°
2d · 2026-09-04 38° 37° 38° 38° 39° 38° 37° 37–39°
1d · 2026-09-05 38° 38° 38° 38° 40° 38° 37° 37–40°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.