Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sun Aug 23?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
4 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Aug 23 high anywhere from 34° to 45°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 38° against the OKC observations — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. ICON ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-08-19 | 34° | 38° | 36° | 38° | 45° | 42° | 35° | 34–45° |
| 3d · 2026-08-20 | 36° | 40° | 39° | 38° | 44° | 43° | 31° | 31–44° |
| 2d · 2026-08-21 | 35° | 36° | 40° | 35° | 43° | 37° | 29° | 29–43° |
| 1d · 2026-08-22 | 35° | 37° | 36° | 37° | 42° | 34° | 34° | 34–42° |
| actual | 38° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.