Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sun Aug 23?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
4 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Aug 23 high anywhere from 94° to 113°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 96°. The day verified at 101° against the OKC observations — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 2.0°. ICON ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-08-19 | 94° | 101° | 96° | 101° | 113° | 107° | 96° | 94–113° |
| 3d · 2026-08-20 | 97° | 103° | 102° | 100° | 110° | 109° | 88° | 88–110° |
| 2d · 2026-08-21 | 95° | 97° | 103° | 95° | 109° | 98° | 84° | 84–109° |
| 1d · 2026-08-22 | 95° | 99° | 96° | 99° | 108° | 93° | 94° | 93–108° |
| actual | 101° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.