The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Tue Jul 21?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

4 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Tue Jul 21 high anywhere from 37° to 44°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 40°. The day verified at 42° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 2° cold.

4 days out the models said 37–44; it hit 42. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Jul 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
4d · 2026-07-17 40° 37° 40° 39° 44° 40° 38° 37–44°
3d · 2026-07-18 40° 37° 40° 40° 43° 40° 39° 37–43°
2d · 2026-07-19 41° 37° 40° 39° 42° 41° 39° 37–42°
1d · 2026-07-20 41° 39° 41° 39° 41° 41° 39° 39–41°
0d · 2026-07-21 40° 39° 41° 40° 40° 41° 39° 39–41°
actual 42°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.