The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Sep 7?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 23° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the OKC observations — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 1° cold.

14 days out the models said 23–37; it hit 39. ICON led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 1°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-23 — 20° — — 35° — — 20–35°
14d · 2026-08-24 31° 26° 23° — 37° — — 23–37°
13d · 2026-08-25 27° 27° 30° — 40° — — 27–40°
12d · 2026-08-26 30° 38° 38° — 38° — — 30–38°
11d · 2026-08-27 37° 27° 40° — 35° — — 27–40°
10d · 2026-08-28 36° 37° 39° — 39° — — 36–39°
9d · 2026-08-29 37° 30° 38° 35° 37° — — 30–38°
8d · 2026-08-30 37° 37° 40° 36° 42° — — 36–42°
7d · 2026-08-31 37° 36° 38° 37° 40° — — 36–40°
6d · 2026-09-01 37° 38° 37° 37° 42° 39° 38° 37–42°
5d · 2026-09-02 38° 36° 38° 39° 40° 38° 37° 36–40°
4d · 2026-09-03 38° 37° 38° 38° 40° 39° 38° 37–40°
3d · 2026-09-04 38° 37° 38° 37° 40° 39° 38° 37–40°
2d · 2026-09-05 38° 37° 38° 37° 40° 38° 38° 37–40°
1d · 2026-09-06 38° 38° 38° 37° 40° 38° 38° 37–40°
0d · 2026-09-07 38° 38° 38° 38° 40° 39° 38° 38–40°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.