Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Sep 7?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 68° to 99°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 101°. The day verified at 102° against the OKC observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-23 | — | 75° | — | — | 95° | — | — | 75–95° |
| 14d · 2026-08-24 | 88° | 68° | 74° | — | 99° | — | — | 68–99° |
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 81° | 87° | 85° | — | 104° | — | — | 81–104° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 87° | 99° | 101° | — | 101° | — | — | 87–101° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 99° | 91° | 103° | — | 94° | — | — | 91–103° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 97° | 98° | 102° | — | 103° | — | — | 97–103° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 99° | 85° | 100° | 96° | 99° | — | — | 85–100° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 98° | 94° | 104° | 97° | 108° | — | — | 94–108° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 99° | 98° | 101° | 98° | 104° | 101° | — | 98–104° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 100° | 100° | 99° | 99° | 108° | 103° | 100° | 99–108° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 100° | 97° | 101° | 102° | 104° | 101° | 99° | 97–104° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 99° | 98° | 100° | 100° | 104° | 103° | 100° | 98–104° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 100° | 99° | 100° | 99° | 104° | 101° | 100° | 99–104° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 100° | 100° | 100° | 98° | 104° | 102° | 100° | 98–104° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 101° | 100° | 100° | 100° | 103° | 102° | 101° | 100–103° |
| actual | 102° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.