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Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Fri Jul 24?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

7 days out, 6 models put Oklahoma City's Fri Jul 24 high anywhere from 36° to 44°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 33° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 3.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 4° warm.

7 days out the models said 36–44; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 4°C warm.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
7d · 2026-07-17 36° 37° 42° 39° 44° 42° — 36–44°
6d · 2026-07-18 37° 39° 43° 40° 43° 41° 36° 36–43°
5d · 2026-07-19 34° 32° 42° 37° 44° 37° 39° 32–44°
4d · 2026-07-20 34° 32° 42° 36° 43° 36° 41° 32–43°
3d · 2026-07-21 33° 33° 39° 35° 39° 36° 37° 33–39°
2d · 2026-07-22 33° 32° 38° 35° 35° 36° 36° 32–38°
1d · 2026-07-23 32° 32° 37° 35° 35° 35° 36° 32–37°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.