Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Fri Jul 24?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

7 days out, 5 models put Oklahoma City's Fri Jul 24 high anywhere from 31° to 43°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 33° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 3.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 2° cold.

7 days out the models said 31–43; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
7d · 2026-07-17	38°	31°	42°	39°	43°	—	—	31–43°
6d · 2026-07-18	37°	38°	43°	40°	43°	42°	36°	36–43°
5d · 2026-07-19	34°	32°	42°	37°	44°	37°	39°	32–44°
4d · 2026-07-20	34°	32°	43°	36°	41°	38°	41°	32–43°
3d · 2026-07-21	33°	35°	40°	35°	39°	36°	37°	33–40°
2d · 2026-07-22	34°	33°	38°	34°	38°	37°	37°	33–38°
1d · 2026-07-23	32°	33°	37°	34°	35°	35°	37°	32–37°
0d · 2026-07-24	31°	31°	33°	32°	31°	32°	33°	31–33°
actual								33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.