The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Sep 14?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 31° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. ECMWF ran 3° cold.

14 days out the models said 31–39; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.5°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-30 — 34° — — 43° — — 34–43°
14d · 2026-08-31 37° 31° 35° — 39° — — 31–39°
13d · 2026-09-01 23° 32° 34° — 28° — — 23–34°
12d · 2026-09-02 32° 31° 34° — 39° — — 31–39°
11d · 2026-09-03 35° 17° 37° — 31° — — 17–37°
10d · 2026-09-04 35° 30° 37° — 38° — — 30–38°
9d · 2026-09-05 35° 25° 27° 35° 32° — — 25–35°
8d · 2026-09-06 36° 27° 33° 37° 33° — — 27–37°
7d · 2026-09-07 35° 37° 33° 37° 38° — — 33–38°
6d · 2026-09-08 35° 35° 37° 38° 38° 37° 36° 35–38°
5d · 2026-09-09 35° 36° 34° 38° 37° 37° 38° 34–38°
4d · 2026-09-10 35° 36° 35° 38° 39° 36° 38° 35–39°
3d · 2026-09-11 36° 36° 36° 37° 39° 37° 37° 36–39°
2d · 2026-09-12 36° 36° 33° 37° 40° 37° 37° 33–40°
1d · 2026-09-13 37° 36° 37° 37° 39° 37° 38° 36–39°
0d · 2026-09-14 37° 37° 35° 37° 39° 37° 37° 35–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.