Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Wed Jul 29?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
12 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Wed Jul 29 high anywhere from 35° to 47°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 39°. The day verified at 40° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Jul 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-07-17 | 38° | 35° | 41° | — | 47° | — | — | 35–47° |
| 11d · 2026-07-18 | 35° | 37° | 39° | — | 46° | — | — | 35–46° |
| 10d · 2026-07-19 | 40° | 36° | 38° | — | 44° | — | — | 36–44° |
| 9d · 2026-07-20 | 36° | 39° | 41° | 40° | 46° | — | — | 36–46° |
| 8d · 2026-07-21 | 40° | 38° | 42° | 40° | 44° | — | — | 38–44° |
| 7d · 2026-07-22 | 38° | 38° | 43° | 42° | 43° | 42° | — | 38–43° |
| 6d · 2026-07-23 | 38° | 37° | 42° | 40° | 38° | 41° | 42° | 37–42° |
| 5d · 2026-07-24 | 32° | 36° | 38° | 40° | 43° | 37° | 40° | 32–43° |
| 4d · 2026-07-25 | 36° | 37° | 39° | 39° | 44° | 39° | 40° | 36–44° |
| 3d · 2026-07-26 | 37° | 37° | 40° | 39° | 42° | 39° | 40° | 37–42° |
| 2d · 2026-07-27 | 37° | 39° | 40° | 39° | 41° | 39° | 40° | 37–41° |
| 1d · 2026-07-28 | 38° | 39° | 40° | 39° | 40° | 39° | 39° | 38–40° |
| actual | 40° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.