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Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Thu Sep 17?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Thu Sep 17 high anywhere from 23° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 37° against the OKC observations — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 1° cold.

14 days out the models said 23–37; it hit 37. ICON led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 1°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-02 — 36° — — 42° — — 36–42°
14d · 2026-09-03 36° 23° 32° — 37° — — 23–37°
13d · 2026-09-04 37° 26° 35° — 27° — — 26–37°
12d · 2026-09-05 28° 30° 35° — 28° — — 28–35°
11d · 2026-09-06 34° 38° 34° — 37° — — 34–38°
10d · 2026-09-07 35° 27° 28° — 36° — — 27–36°
9d · 2026-09-08 36° 36° 37° 38° 38° — — 36–38°
8d · 2026-09-09 37° 33° 27° 37° 37° — — 27–37°
7d · 2026-09-10 36° 32° 37° 37° 38° — — 32–38°
6d · 2026-09-11 37° 36° 37° 37° 39° 36° 34° 34–39°
5d · 2026-09-12 36° 36° 36° 36° 38° 37° 34° 34–38°
4d · 2026-09-13 37° 36° 37° 36° 38° 37° 35° 35–38°
3d · 2026-09-14 36° 36° 37° 36° 37° 37° 36° 36–37°
2d · 2026-09-15 37° 36° 37° 36° 38° 37° 36° 36–38°
1d · 2026-09-16 37° 36° 36° 37° 39° 37° 36° 36–39°
0d · 2026-09-17 36° 36° 36° 37° 38° 37° 36° 36–38°
actual 37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.