Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Thu Sep 17?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Thu Sep 17 high anywhere from 74° to 99°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 99° against the OKC observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. ECMWF ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-02 | — | 97° | — | — | 108° | — | — | 97–108° |
| 14d · 2026-09-03 | 98° | 74° | 89° | — | 99° | — | — | 74–99° |
| 13d · 2026-09-04 | 99° | 79° | 95° | — | 80° | — | — | 79–99° |
| 12d · 2026-09-05 | 83° | 86° | 94° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–94° |
| 11d · 2026-09-06 | 94° | 100° | 94° | — | 99° | — | — | 94–100° |
| 10d · 2026-09-07 | 96° | 81° | 83° | — | 98° | — | — | 81–98° |
| 9d · 2026-09-08 | 96° | 96° | 99° | 100° | 101° | — | — | 96–101° |
| 8d · 2026-09-09 | 98° | 91° | 81° | 98° | 98° | — | — | 81–98° |
| 7d · 2026-09-10 | 97° | 90° | 99° | 98° | 101° | — | — | 90–101° |
| 6d · 2026-09-11 | 98° | 97° | 98° | 99° | 102° | 96° | 94° | 94–102° |
| 5d · 2026-09-12 | 97° | 96° | 97° | 97° | 101° | 98° | 94° | 94–101° |
| 4d · 2026-09-13 | 98° | 97° | 99° | 97° | 100° | 99° | 95° | 95–100° |
| 3d · 2026-09-14 | 98° | 96° | 99° | 97° | 99° | 99° | 96° | 96–99° |
| 2d · 2026-09-15 | 99° | 97° | 99° | 98° | 100° | 98° | 97° | 97–100° |
| 1d · 2026-09-16 | 98° | 97° | 97° | 98° | 102° | 98° | 97° | 97–102° |
| 0d · 2026-09-17 | 97° | 97° | 96° | 99° | 100° | 99° | 97° | 96–100° |
| actual | 99° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.