Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Sep 26?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Sep 26 high anywhere from 25° to 35°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 34° against the OKC observations, with 0.3 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-11 | — | 27° | — | — | 30° | — | — | 27–30° |
| 14d · 2026-09-12 | 35° | 25° | 27° | — | 34° | — | — | 25–35° |
| 13d · 2026-09-13 | 32° | 33° | 30° | — | 20° | — | — | 20–33° |
| 12d · 2026-09-14 | 25° | 33° | 32° | — | 35° | — | — | 25–35° |
| 11d · 2026-09-15 | 32° | 35° | 25° | — | 38° | — | — | 25–38° |
| 10d · 2026-09-16 | 24° | 28° | 22° | — | 36° | — | — | 22–36° |
| 9d · 2026-09-17 | 21° | 28° | 24° | 31° | 32° | — | — | 21–32° |
| 8d · 2026-09-18 | 22° | 26° | 28° | 27° | 33° | — | — | 22–33° |
| 7d · 2026-09-19 | 27° | 28° | 22° | 30° | 31° | 28° | — | 22–31° |
| 6d · 2026-09-20 | 26° | 30° | 33° | 30° | 29° | 33° | 31° | 26–33° |
| 5d · 2026-09-21 | 28° | 32° | 35° | 32° | 36° | 33° | 33° | 28–36° |
| 4d · 2026-09-22 | 30° | 31° | 34° | 33° | 34° | 33° | 32° | 30–34° |
| 3d · 2026-09-23 | 29° | 30° | 29° | 32° | 31° | 33° | 31° | 29–33° |
| 2d · 2026-09-24 | 29° | 30° | 28° | 31° | 33° | 33° | 34° | 28–34° |
| 1d · 2026-09-25 | 28° | 30° | 31° | 33° | 33° | 34° | 34° | 28–34° |
| actual | 34° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.