The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Wed Jul 22?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

5 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Wed Jul 22 high anywhere from 31° to 45°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 35° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 2° cold.

5 days out the models said 31–45; it hit 35. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Jul 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
5d · 2026-07-17 36° 31° 40° 37° 45° 35° 31° 31–45°
4d · 2026-07-18 37° 35° 40° 38° 44° 37° 38° 35–44°
3d · 2026-07-19 37° 34° 38° 35° 42° 39° 39° 34–42°
2d · 2026-07-20 37° 35° 37° 36° 40° 36° 38° 35–40°
1d · 2026-07-21 36° 35° 36° 35° 37° 35° 36° 35–37°
0d · 2026-07-22 36° 33° 35° 35° 35° 36° 36° 33–36°
actual 35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.