Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Wed Jul 22?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
5 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Wed Jul 22 high anywhere from 88° to 111°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 96° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.0°. GEM ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Jul 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-07-17 | 97° | 89° | 105° | 99° | 111° | 96° | 88° | 88–111° |
| 4d · 2026-07-18 | 98° | 94° | 104° | 100° | 112° | 103° | 100° | 94–112° |
| 3d · 2026-07-19 | 99° | 94° | 100° | 95° | 107° | 102° | 102° | 94–107° |
| 2d · 2026-07-20 | 98° | 95° | 98° | 96° | 97° | 96° | 100° | 95–100° |
| 1d · 2026-07-21 | 97° | 94° | 97° | 94° | 98° | 94° | 97° | 94–98° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.