The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Fri Sep 4?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 33° to 43°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIGFS ran 1° cold.

14 days out the models said 33–43; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.0°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-20 — 37° — — 40° — — 37–40°
14d · 2026-08-21 36° 33° 39° — 43° — — 33–43°
13d · 2026-08-22 37° 33° 31° — 41° — — 31–41°
12d · 2026-08-23 37° 36° 41° — 42° — — 36–42°
11d · 2026-08-24 38° 38° 29° — 35° — — 29–38°
10d · 2026-08-25 38° 34° 38° — 38° — — 34–38°
9d · 2026-08-26 38° 39° 38° 39° 42° — — 38–42°
8d · 2026-08-27 39° 38° 39° 39° 41° — — 38–41°
7d · 2026-08-28 38° 35° 38° 39° 41° — — 35–41°
6d · 2026-08-29 38° 36° 37° 37° 41° 39° 37° 36–41°
5d · 2026-08-30 36° 35° 37° 37° 41° 37° 39° 35–41°
4d · 2026-08-31 36° 35° 35° 37° 41° 35° 35° 35–41°
3d · 2026-09-01 36° 37° 38° 36° 39° 36° 37° 36–39°
2d · 2026-09-02 35° 35° 37° 35° 38° 35° 37° 35–38°
1d · 2026-09-03 36° 36° 37° 36° 39° 36° 34° 34–39°
0d · 2026-09-04 37° 36° 37° 37° 39° 38° 38° 36–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.