Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sun Sep 27?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Sep 27 high anywhere from 16° to 33°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 31°. The day verified at 34° against the OKC observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-12 | — | 26° | — | — | 32° | — | — | 26–32° |
| 14d · 2026-09-13 | 33° | 24° | 28° | — | 16° | — | — | 16–33° |
| 13d · 2026-09-14 | 29° | 35° | 35° | — | 36° | — | — | 29–36° |
| 12d · 2026-09-15 | 33° | 34° | 25° | — | 37° | — | — | 25–37° |
| 11d · 2026-09-16 | 26° | 29° | 24° | — | 30° | — | — | 24–30° |
| 10d · 2026-09-17 | 23° | 31° | 26° | — | 26° | — | — | 23–31° |
| 9d · 2026-09-18 | 24° | 26° | 33° | 31° | 35° | — | — | 24–35° |
| 8d · 2026-09-19 | 27° | 32° | 24° | 31° | 33° | — | — | 24–33° |
| 7d · 2026-09-20 | 27° | 33° | 34° | 31° | 36° | 29° | — | 27–36° |
| 6d · 2026-09-21 | 30° | 34° | 34° | 35° | 35° | 35° | 35° | 30–35° |
| 5d · 2026-09-22 | 32° | 33° | 34° | 33° | 34° | 29° | 34° | 29–34° |
| 4d · 2026-09-23 | 31° | 31° | 28° | 35° | 32° | 33° | 31° | 28–35° |
| 3d · 2026-09-24 | 30° | 30° | 29° | 32° | 36° | 33° | 35° | 29–36° |
| 2d · 2026-09-25 | 30° | 30° | 29° | 33° | 33° | 33° | 33° | 29–33° |
| 1d · 2026-09-26 | 30° | 30° | 31° | 32° | 32° | 31° | 34° | 30–34° |
| actual | 34° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.