The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Fri Sep 11?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Fri Sep 11 high anywhere from 29° to 42°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 37° against the OKC observations — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. ECMWF ran 5° cold.

14 days out the models said 29–42; it hit 37. GFS led (off 1.1°C); ECMWF ran 5°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-27 — 34° — — 42° — — 34–42°
14d · 2026-08-28 38° 29° 32° — 42° — — 29–42°
13d · 2026-08-29 34° 32° 35° — 40° — — 32–40°
12d · 2026-08-30 36° 32° 32° — 34° — — 32–36°
11d · 2026-08-31 34° 36° 38° — 43° — — 34–43°
10d · 2026-09-01 38° 35° 37° — 30° — — 30–38°
9d · 2026-09-02 38° 34° 38° 38° 38° — — 34–38°
8d · 2026-09-03 33° 37° 40° 37° 40° — — 33–40°
7d · 2026-09-04 33° 31° 33° 33° 41° — — 31–41°
6d · 2026-09-05 37° 30° 37° 32° 39° 41° 38° 30–41°
5d · 2026-09-06 34° 36° 32° 38° 41° 41° 39° 32–41°
4d · 2026-09-07 34° 36° 32° 29° 39° 35° 38° 29–39°
3d · 2026-09-08 33° 34° 33° 36° 34° 30° 37° 30–37°
2d · 2026-09-09 33° 32° 31° 29° 33° 32° 35° 29–35°
1d · 2026-09-10 32° 31° 32° 33° 35° 32° 36° 31–36°
0d · 2026-09-11 34° 33° 32° 35° 36° 34° 36° 32–36°
actual 37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.