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Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Fri Sep 11?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Fri Sep 11 high anywhere from 32° to 42°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 37° against the OKC observations — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 1.9°. ICON ran 5° cool.

14 days out the models said 32–42; it hit 37. GFS led (off 1.9°C); ICON ran 5°C cool.
The shareable card for this day: what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labeled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-27 — 36° — — 42° — — 36–42°
14d · 2026-08-28 38° 35° 32° — 42° — — 32–42°
13d · 2026-08-29 34° 33° 35° — 40° — — 33–40°
12d · 2026-08-30 36° 35° 32° — 34° — — 32–36°
11d · 2026-08-31 34° 35° 38° — 43° — — 34–43°
10d · 2026-09-01 35° 37° 37° — 42° — — 35–42°
9d · 2026-09-02 38° 34° 38° 38° 38° — — 34–38°
8d · 2026-09-03 32° 38° 40° 37° 40° — — 32–40°
7d · 2026-09-04 33° 33° 33° 33° 41° 40° — 33–41°
6d · 2026-09-05 37° 31° 37° 32° 39° 42° 38° 31–42°
5d · 2026-09-06 34° 38° 36° 38° 41° 37° 39° 34–41°
4d · 2026-09-07 34° 35° 33° 29° 39° 34° 38° 29–39°
3d · 2026-09-08 33° 32° 31° 29° 34° 30° 37° 29–37°
2d · 2026-09-09 33° 32° 31° 32° 33° 31° 35° 31–35°
1d · 2026-09-10 32° 32° 31° 34° 35° 31° 35° 31–35°
actual 37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.