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Which weather model is most accurate in Denver?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Denver at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the DEN observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA AIGFS (AI), which has run cool by about 4.51°F at 3-day lead over this window.

Denver's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
DWD ICON 1.9° (-1.6°) 3.8° (-2.8°) — 29
ECMWF IFS 2.0° (-0.6°) 3.2° (-1.2°) 5.2° (-3.8°) 29
NOAA GFS 2.1° (-0.3°) 2.8° (-1.3°) 5.5° (+0.9°) 29
GEM (Canada) 2.3° (-1.1°) 3.4° (-2.2°) 5.8° (-2.3°) 29
UKMO (UK) 2.3° (-0.7°) 3.2° (-1.5°) — 29
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 2.7° (-2.1°) 4.2° (-3.8°) 5.6° (-3.0°) 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 4.0° (-3.5°) 4.6° (-4.5°) 7.6° (-5.7°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Denver point is the Denver International station (DEN), 18 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Denver International (DEN) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 60–62; it hit 57. GFS led (off 0.0°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 60–79; it hit 54. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 38–79; it hit 48. ICON led (off 1.8°F); UKMO ran 5°F warm.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 74–79; it hit 66. GFS led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 10°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 66–83; it hit 82. ECMWF led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 71–77; it hit 85. UKMO led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 69–81; it hit 83. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 71–85; it hit 86. AIFS led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 73–77; it hit 84. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 58–78; it hit 81. ICON led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 69–83; it hit 87. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 65–85; it hit 87. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 67–79; it hit 81. AIFS led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 67–81; it hit 83. AIFS led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 3°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 67–80; it hit 81. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 48–79; it hit 70. GFS led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 58–79; it hit 64. GEM led (off 0.8°F); UKMO ran 6°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 76–87; it hit 71. GFS led (off 1.8°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 72–84; it hit 71. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 7°F warm.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 61–79; it hit 83. GFS led (off 0.8°F); UKMO ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 79–80; it hit 81. GFS led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 68–82; it hit 76. UKMO led (off 0.0°F); AIFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 66–88; it hit 71. AIFS led (off 0.8°F); ECMWF ran 5°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 67–74; it hit 72. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 73–87; it hit 83. GEM led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 66–84; it hit 75. GEM led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 76–83; it hit 74. GFS led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 7°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 65–86; it hit 77. GEM led (off 0.4°F); ECMWF ran 6°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 79–88; it hit 86. UKMO led (off 2.8°F); AIGFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 70–84; it hit 84. GEM led (off 0.0°F); UKMO ran 9°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 82–86; it hit 83. GFS led (off 0.6°F); ICON ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 80–89; it hit 71. AIFS led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 8°F warm.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 74–85; it hit 88. ECMWF led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 76–94; it hit 94. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 81–93; it hit 79. AIFS led (off 0.0°F); UKMO ran 11°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 72–90; it hit 89. GFS led (off 0.2°F); UKMO ran 2°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 76–90; it hit 89. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 76–90; it hit 82. ECMWF led (off 0.6°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 78–89; it hit 86. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 69–88; it hit 90. ECMWF led (off 1.0°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 13 days out the models said 59–84; it hit 92. ECMWF led (off 0.6°F); AIFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 12 days out the models said 73–86; it hit 94. ECMWF led (off 2.3°F); GFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 11 days out the models said 70–89; it hit 93. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 3 10 days out the models said 80–87; it hit 92. AIFS led (off 0.7°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 2 9 days out the models said 80–86; it hit 88. AIFS led (off 0.0°F); ICON ran 3°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 8 days out the models said 80–88; it hit 87. GEM led (off 2.1°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 31 7 days out the models said 77–86; it hit 86. GFS led (off 0.8°F); ICON ran 6°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 30 6 days out the models said 80–90; it hit 85. GFS led (off 1.0°F); UKMO ran 5°F warm.
  • Sat Aug 29 5 days out the models said 88–96; it hit 93. ICON led (off 1.3°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 28 4 days out the models said 91–94; it hit 95. ECMWF led (off 1.6°F); UKMO ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Aug 19 14 days out the models said 80–90; it hit 91. GFS led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 18 14 days out the models said 71–99; it hit 89. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); ICON ran 5°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 78–100; it hit 94. GFS led (off 0.8°F); GEM ran 7°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 76–90; it hit 84. GFS led (off 1.2°F); GEM ran 6°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 75–90; it hit 81. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 71–96; it hit 86. UKMO led (off 0.6°F); GEM ran 9°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 80–98; it hit 80. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 73–99; it hit 94. ECMWF led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 91–103; it hit 97. GFS led (off 0.6°F); GEM ran 4°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 89–92; it hit 93. AIFS led (off 0.2°F); UKMO ran 4°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 82–98; it hit 97. ICON led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 8 14 days out the models said 94–102; it hit 100. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 6°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 7 13 days out the models said 95–104; it hit 97. UKMO led (off 0.8°F); GEM ran 7°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 6 12 days out the models said 90–101; it hit 98. ECMWF led (off 0.6°F); GEM ran 10°F cool.
  • Wed Aug 5 11 days out the models said 83–103; it hit 85. ICON led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 2°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 4 10 days out the models said 75–102; it hit 76. AIFS led (off 0.5°F); ECMWF ran 4°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 3 9 days out the models said 81–94; it hit 102. ICON led (off 0.4°F); GEM ran 11°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 2 8 days out the models said 93–105; it hit 102. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 7°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 1 7 days out the models said 92–102; it hit 95. ICON led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 6°F cool.
  • Fri Jul 31 6 days out the models said 90–102; it hit 89. ICON led (off 0.1°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Thu Jul 30 5 days out the models said 90–100; it hit 95. GFS led (off 0.5°F); ECMWF ran 9°F cool.
  • Wed Jul 29 4 days out the models said 86–97; it hit 91. AIFS led (off 3.1°F); ECMWF ran 7°F cool.
  • Tue Jul 28 3 days out the models said 85–100; it hit 91. ECMWF led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.

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