Was the forecast right for Denver on Tue Aug 4?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
10 days out, 4 models put Denver's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 75° to 102°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 76° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. ECMWF ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-07-25 | 75° | 83° | 84° | — | 102° | — | — | 75–102° |
| 9d · 2026-07-26 | 83° | 91° | 86° | 89° | 101° | — | — | 83–101° |
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 84° | 80° | 91° | 89° | 86° | — | — | 80–91° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 84° | 84° | 89° | 89° | 84° | — | — | 84–89° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 73° | 71° | 84° | 85° | 83° | 91° | 92° | 71–92° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 74° | 73° | 86° | 80° | 82° | 77° | 84° | 73–86° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 72° | 74° | 80° | 72° | 88° | 83° | 84° | 72–88° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 79° | 77° | 83° | 72° | 87° | 78° | 81° | 72–87° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 76° | 76° | 79° | 70° | 88° | 80° | 78° | 70–88° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 75° | 77° | 80° | 79° | 78° | 77° | 78° | 75–80° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.