Was the forecast right for Denver on Sun Oct 4?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 67° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 81° against the DEN observations — clear.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 54° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 54–81° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 79° | 78° | 70° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 59° | 68° | 76° | — | 62° | — | — | 59–76° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 64° | 70° | 53° | — | 65° | — | — | 53–70° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 70° | 80° | 73° | — | 46° | — | — | 46–80° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 71° | 43° | 73° | — | 54° | — | — | 43–73° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 72° | 42° | 72° | 42° | 32° | — | — | 32–72° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 70° | 50° | 67° | 60° | 66° | — | — | 50–70° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 64° | 66° | 66° | 74° | 76° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 70° | 68° | 73° | 78° | 81° | 75° | 70° | 68–81° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 77° | 74° | 82° | 81° | 77° | 72° | 80° | 72–82° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 79° | 77° | 82° | 76° | 80° | 78° | 82° | 76–82° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 78° | 77° | 83° | 79° | 80° | 78° | 80° | 77–83° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 80° | 77° | 82° | 79° | 81° | 80° | 81° | 77–82° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 81° | 79° | 83° | 80° | 81° | 80° | 82° | 79–83° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.