Was the forecast right for Denver on Sat Sep 12?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
13 days out, 4 models put Denver's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 73° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 79° against the DEN observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 8° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-28 | — | 88° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 88–91° |
| 14d · 2026-08-29 | 87° | 93° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 87–93° |
| 13d · 2026-08-30 | 84° | 73° | 83° | — | 92° | — | — | 73–92° |
| 12d · 2026-08-31 | 59° | 59° | 85° | — | 85° | — | — | 59–85° |
| 11d · 2026-09-01 | 79° | 75° | 76° | — | 78° | — | — | 75–79° |
| 10d · 2026-09-02 | 82° | 76° | 97° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–97° |
| 9d · 2026-09-03 | 90° | 83° | 88° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 8d · 2026-09-04 | 88° | 67° | 92° | 79° | 88° | — | — | 67–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-05 | 84° | 89° | 79° | 90° | 87° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-06 | 92° | 92° | 93° | 88° | 84° | 90° | — | 84–93° |
| 5d · 2026-09-07 | 85° | 90° | 82° | 93° | 91° | 93° | 87° | 82–93° |
| 4d · 2026-09-08 | 80° | 81° | 80° | 78° | 79° | 88° | 87° | 78–88° |
| 3d · 2026-09-09 | 80° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 77° | 82° | 84° | 77–84° |
| 2d · 2026-09-10 | 82° | 81° | 85° | 81° | 80° | 83° | 88° | 80–88° |
| 1d · 2026-09-11 | 79° | 79° | 83° | 83° | 83° | 86° | 86° | 79–86° |
| 0d · 2026-09-12 | 79° | 79° | 86° | 81° | 83° | 84° | 87° | 79–87° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.