The Spread

Was the forecast right for Denver on Sat Sep 12?

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations

13 days out, 4 models put Denver's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 73° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 79° against the DEN observations — cloudy.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 8° hot.

13 days out the models said 73–92; it hit 79. AIFS led (off 0.2°F); UKMO ran 8°F hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-28 88° 91° 88–91°
14d · 2026-08-29 87° 93° 92° 87–93°
13d · 2026-08-30 84° 73° 83° 92° 73–92°
12d · 2026-08-31 59° 59° 85° 85° 59–85°
11d · 2026-09-01 79° 75° 76° 78° 75–79°
10d · 2026-09-02 82° 76° 97° 75° 75–97°
9d · 2026-09-03 90° 83° 88° 79° 79–90°
8d · 2026-09-04 88° 67° 92° 79° 88° 67–92°
7d · 2026-09-05 84° 89° 79° 90° 87° 79–90°
6d · 2026-09-06 92° 92° 93° 88° 84° 90° 84–93°
5d · 2026-09-07 85° 90° 82° 93° 91° 93° 87° 82–93°
4d · 2026-09-08 80° 81° 80° 78° 79° 88° 87° 78–88°
3d · 2026-09-09 80° 81° 82° 82° 77° 82° 84° 77–84°
2d · 2026-09-10 82° 81° 85° 81° 80° 83° 88° 80–88°
1d · 2026-09-11 79° 79° 83° 83° 83° 86° 86° 79–86°
0d · 2026-09-12 79° 79° 86° 81° 83° 84° 87° 79–87°
actual 79°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.