Was the forecast right for Denver on Fri Sep 4?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
11 days out, 4 models put Denver's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 70° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 93° against the DEN observations — partly cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-24 | 84° | 84° | 70° | — | 89° | — | — | 70–89° |
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 73° | 86° | 78° | — | 78° | — | — | 73–86° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 75° | 82° | 88° | 84° | 91° | — | — | 75–91° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 90° | 77° | 94° | 76° | 86° | — | — | 76–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 90° | 86° | 94° | 90° | 86° | — | — | 86–94° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 91° | 86° | 91° | 90° | 92° | 88° | 92° | 86–92° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 91° | 86° | 90° | 91° | 86° | 88° | 90° | 86–91° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 93° | 89° | 92° | 89° | 88° | 87° | 92° | 87–93° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 92° | 90° | 91° | 89° | 90° | 87° | 89° | 87–92° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 92° | 90° | 92° | 90° | 92° | 89° | 90° | 89–92° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 92° | 89° | 92° | 90° | 89° | 90° | 93° | 89–93° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.