Was the forecast right for Denver on Tue Sep 29?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Tue Sep 29 high anywhere from 76° to 87°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 71° against the DEN observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.8°. GEM ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-14 | — | 76° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 14d · 2026-09-15 | 78° | 83° | 87° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–87° |
| 13d · 2026-09-16 | 71° | 76° | 78° | — | 88° | — | — | 71–88° |
| 12d · 2026-09-17 | 70° | 78° | 73° | — | 77° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 11d · 2026-09-18 | 78° | 71° | 72° | — | 86° | — | — | 71–86° |
| 10d · 2026-09-19 | 65° | 71° | 74° | — | 58° | — | — | 58–74° |
| 9d · 2026-09-20 | 63° | 73° | 68° | 74° | 83° | — | — | 63–83° |
| 8d · 2026-09-21 | 59° | 67° | 76° | 76° | 74° | — | — | 59–76° |
| 7d · 2026-09-22 | 73° | 61° | 59° | 66° | 64° | — | — | 59–73° |
| 6d · 2026-09-23 | 59° | 57° | 57° | 56° | 66° | 58° | 62° | 56–66° |
| 5d · 2026-09-24 | 58° | 66° | 66° | 58° | 59° | 63° | 71° | 58–71° |
| 4d · 2026-09-25 | 70° | 68° | 70° | 59° | 63° | 57° | 62° | 57–70° |
| 3d · 2026-09-26 | 62° | 65° | 71° | 62° | 67° | 63° | 66° | 62–71° |
| 2d · 2026-09-27 | 63° | 62° | 72° | 69° | 68° | 65° | 70° | 62–72° |
| 1d · 2026-09-28 | 69° | 68° | 73° | 66° | 69° | 68° | 68° | 66–73° |
| actual | 71° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.