Was the forecast right for Denver on Tue Sep 1?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
8 days out, 5 models put Denver's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 80° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 87° against the DEN observations — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 2.1°. AIGFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-24 | 83° | 84° | 86° | 80° | 88° | — | — | 80–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-25 | 83° | 85° | 84° | 75° | 90° | — | — | 75–90° |
| 6d · 2026-08-26 | 82° | 82° | 87° | 82° | 87° | 86° | 91° | 82–91° |
| 5d · 2026-08-27 | 78° | 82° | 85° | 85° | 86° | 84° | 87° | 78–87° |
| 4d · 2026-08-28 | 76° | 81° | 83° | 78° | 87° | 85° | 80° | 76–87° |
| 3d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 79° | 83° | 85° | 85° | 84° | 86° | 79–86° |
| 2d · 2026-08-30 | 83° | 81° | 83° | 84° | 83° | 85° | 82° | 81–85° |
| 1d · 2026-08-31 | 85° | 81° | 82° | 85° | 84° | 84° | 85° | 81–85° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.