The Spread

Was the forecast right for Denver on Tue Sep 1?

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations

7 days out, 5 models put Denver's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 28° to 33°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 29°. The day verified at 31° against the DEN observations — drizzle.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 3° cold.

7 days out the models said 28–33; it hit 31. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
7d · 2026-08-25 30° 30° 30° 28° 33° 28–33°
6d · 2026-08-26 29° 28° 30° 30° 29° 28° 28–30°
5d · 2026-08-27 28° 28° 31° 30° 30° 29° 31° 28–31°
4d · 2026-08-28 24° 28° 29° 28° 30° 31° 26° 24–31°
3d · 2026-08-29 27° 27° 27° 26° 31° 30° 31° 26–31°
2d · 2026-08-30 28° 26° 28° 28° 28° 29° 30° 26–30°
1d · 2026-08-31 28° 27° 29° 29° 28° 28° 27° 27–29°
0d · 2026-09-01 28° 27° 29° 29° 29° 28° 30° 27–30°
actual 31°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.