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Was the forecast right for Denver on Tue Sep 1?

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations

8 days out, 5 models put Denver's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 27° to 31°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 29°. The day verified at 31° against the DEN observations — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 1.2°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.

8 days out the models said 27–31; it hit 31. GEM led (off 1.2°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
8d · 2026-08-24 28° 29° 30° 27° 31° — — 27–31°
7d · 2026-08-25 28° 29° 29° 24° 32° — — 24–32°
6d · 2026-08-26 28° 28° 31° 28° 30° 30° 33° 28–33°
5d · 2026-08-27 26° 28° 29° 29° 30° 29° 31° 26–31°
4d · 2026-08-28 25° 27° 28° 25° 31° 29° 27° 25–31°
3d · 2026-08-29 29° 26° 28° 29° 29° 29° 30° 26–30°
2d · 2026-08-30 29° 27° 28° 29° 28° 29° 28° 27–29°
1d · 2026-08-31 29° 27° 28° 29° 29° 29° 29° 27–29°
actual 31°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.