Was the forecast right for Denver on Fri Oct 16?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 60° to 62°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 54°. The day verified at 57° against the DEN observations — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 67° | — | — | 53° | — | — | 53–67° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 60° | 60° | 60° | — | 62° | — | — | 60–62° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 53° | 61° | 61° | — | 72° | — | — | 53–72° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 55° | 57° | 55° | — | 60° | — | — | 55–60° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 46° | 67° | 56° | — | 55° | — | — | 46–67° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 48° | 64° | 54° | — | 47° | — | — | 47–64° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 42° | 39° | 54° | 46° | 37° | — | — | 37–54° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 42° | 38° | 52° | 40° | 37° | — | — | 37–52° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 58° | 39° | 56° | 63° | 49° | — | — | 39–63° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 58° | 51° | 52° | 55° | 51° | 56° | 55° | 51–58° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 53° | 54° | 53° | 59° | 64° | 56° | 58° | 53–64° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | — | 56° | 63° | 54° | 63° | 60° | 53° | 53–63° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 54° | 56° | 57° | 52° | 62° | 60° | 54° | 52–62° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 54° | 53° | 53° | 54° | 60° | 57° | 52° | 52–60° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 54° | 52° | 54° | 55° | 57° | 53° | 53° | 52–57° |
| actual | 57° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.