Was the forecast right for Denver on Wed Aug 19?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Wed Aug 19 high anywhere from 80° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 91° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-04 | — | 66° | — | — | 102° | — | — | 66–102° |
| 14d · 2026-08-05 | 82° | 85° | 80° | — | 90° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 13d · 2026-08-06 | 79° | 83° | 82° | — | 96° | — | — | 79–96° |
| 12d · 2026-08-07 | 81° | 85° | 73° | — | 83° | — | — | 73–85° |
| 11d · 2026-08-08 | 75° | 86° | 84° | — | 88° | — | — | 75–88° |
| 10d · 2026-08-09 | 85° | 92° | 81° | — | 89° | — | — | 81–92° |
| 9d · 2026-08-10 | 87° | 85° | 94° | 92° | 97° | — | — | 85–97° |
| 8d · 2026-08-11 | 81° | 88° | 78° | 94° | 91° | — | — | 78–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-12 | 85° | 80° | 88° | 92° | 78° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 6d · 2026-08-13 | 81° | 66° | 89° | 90° | 82° | 82° | 87° | 66–90° |
| 5d · 2026-08-14 | 83° | 81° | 78° | 87° | 82° | 84° | 87° | 78–87° |
| 4d · 2026-08-15 | 85° | 79° | 84° | 84° | 90° | 91° | 88° | 79–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-16 | 87° | 86° | 88° | 88° | 90° | 89° | 88° | 86–90° |
| 2d · 2026-08-17 | 88° | 87° | 88° | 88° | 94° | 89° | 89° | 87–94° |
| 1d · 2026-08-18 | 88° | 88° | 88° | 87° | 92° | 87° | 92° | 87–92° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.