Was the forecast right for Denver on Thu Aug 13?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Thu Aug 13 high anywhere from 80° to 98°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 80° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.21 in of precipitation — rain.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. GFS ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-29 | — | 87° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 87–98° |
| 14d · 2026-07-30 | 81° | 80° | 89° | — | 98° | — | — | 80–98° |
| 13d · 2026-07-31 | 80° | 82° | 87° | — | 92° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 12d · 2026-08-01 | 88° | 76° | 79° | — | 97° | — | — | 76–97° |
| 11d · 2026-08-02 | 85° | 75° | 71° | — | 95° | — | — | 71–95° |
| 10d · 2026-08-03 | 73° | 82° | 86° | — | 99° | — | — | 73–99° |
| 9d · 2026-08-04 | 78° | 79° | 74° | 74° | 91° | — | — | 74–91° |
| 8d · 2026-08-05 | 79° | 82° | 83° | 85° | 88° | — | — | 79–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-06 | 70° | 82° | 67° | 70° | 90° | — | — | 67–90° |
| 6d · 2026-08-07 | 73° | 83° | 85° | 74° | 97° | 88° | 85° | 73–97° |
| 5d · 2026-08-08 | 72° | 79° | 83° | 88° | 89° | 86° | 90° | 72–90° |
| 4d · 2026-08-09 | 73° | 74° | 77° | 82° | 88° | 76° | 82° | 73–88° |
| 3d · 2026-08-10 | 75° | 80° | 78° | 83° | 86° | 85° | 88° | 75–88° |
| 2d · 2026-08-11 | 78° | 81° | 82° | 81° | 90° | 89° | 78° | 78–90° |
| 1d · 2026-08-12 | 76° | 77° | 80° | 79° | 86° | 85° | 79° | 76–86° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.