Was the forecast right for Denver on Sun Oct 18?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Sun Oct 18 high anywhere from 54° to 68°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 75° against the DEN observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-03 | — | 59° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 59–78° |
| 14d · 2026-10-04 | 66° | 54° | 60° | — | 68° | — | — | 54–68° |
| 13d · 2026-10-05 | 74° | 67° | 63° | — | 68° | — | — | 63–74° |
| 12d · 2026-10-06 | 74° | 74° | 53° | — | 63° | — | — | 53–74° |
| 11d · 2026-10-07 | 54° | 69° | 67° | — | 63° | — | — | 54–69° |
| 10d · 2026-10-08 | 73° | 56° | 71° | — | 50° | — | — | 50–73° |
| 9d · 2026-10-09 | 73° | 60° | 70° | 75° | 74° | — | — | 60–75° |
| 8d · 2026-10-10 | 72° | 73° | 65° | 73° | 69° | — | — | 65–73° |
| 7d · 2026-10-11 | 69° | 71° | 65° | 71° | 72° | — | — | 65–72° |
| 6d · 2026-10-12 | — | 69° | 69° | 70° | 69° | 69° | 65° | 65–70° |
| 5d · 2026-10-13 | 70° | 70° | 70° | 65° | 66° | 67° | 69° | 65–70° |
| 4d · 2026-10-14 | 70° | 71° | 68° | 71° | 72° | 70° | 73° | 68–73° |
| 3d · 2026-10-15 | 72° | 72° | 71° | 72° | 72° | 69° | 68° | 68–72° |
| 2d · 2026-10-16 | 75° | 72° | 72° | 72° | 73° | 71° | 71° | 71–75° |
| 1d · 2026-10-17 | 74° | 72° | 72° | 73° | 72° | 72° | 72° | 72–74° |
| actual | 75° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.