Was the forecast right for Denver on Sat Sep 5?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
11 days out, 4 models put Denver's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 61° to 87°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 94° against the DEN observations — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.3°. GFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-25 | 82° | 61° | 75° | — | 87° | — | — | 61–87° |
| 10d · 2026-08-26 | 67° | 85° | 70° | — | 87° | — | — | 67–87° |
| 9d · 2026-08-27 | 83° | 90° | 96° | — | 85° | — | — | 83–96° |
| 8d · 2026-08-28 | 92° | 83° | 93° | 93° | 88° | — | — | 83–93° |
| 7d · 2026-08-29 | 89° | 91° | 87° | 92° | 86° | — | — | 86–92° |
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 91° | 86° | 92° | 90° | 88° | 84° | — | 84–92° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 92° | 88° | 90° | 90° | 87° | 84° | 90° | 84–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 92° | 89° | 94° | 89° | 91° | 84° | 89° | 84–94° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 91° | 90° | 93° | 90° | 88° | 87° | 91° | 87–93° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 89° | 90° | 92° | 90° | 88° | 89° | 91° | 88–92° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 90° | 89° | 93° | 88° | 89° | 89° | 91° | 88–93° |
| 0d · 2026-09-05 | 92° | 89° | 93° | 91° | 88° | 90° | 92° | 88–93° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.