The Spread

Was the forecast right for Denver on Sat Sep 5?

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations

11 days out, 4 models put Denver's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 16° to 31°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 34° against the DEN observations — partly cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.7°. GFS ran 3° cold.

11 days out the models said 16–31; it hit 34. ECMWF led (off 0.7°C); GFS ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
11d · 2026-08-25 28° 16° 24° — 31° — — 16–31°
10d · 2026-08-26 19° 29° 21° — 31° — — 19–31°
9d · 2026-08-27 28° 32° 35° — 30° — — 28–35°
8d · 2026-08-28 33° 29° 34° 34° 31° — — 29–34°
7d · 2026-08-29 32° 33° 31° 33° 30° — — 30–33°
6d · 2026-08-30 33° 30° 33° 32° 31° 29° — 29–33°
5d · 2026-08-31 33° 31° 32° 32° 30° 29° 32° 29–33°
4d · 2026-09-01 33° 32° 34° 32° 33° 29° 32° 29–34°
3d · 2026-09-02 33° 32° 34° 32° 31° 30° 33° 30–34°
2d · 2026-09-03 32° 32° 33° 32° 31° 31° 33° 31–33°
1d · 2026-09-04 32° 32° 34° 31° 32° 32° 33° 31–34°
0d · 2026-09-05 33° 32° 34° 33° 31° 32° 33° 31–34°
actual 34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.