Was the forecast right for Denver on Sat Sep 19?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
13 days out, 4 models put Denver's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 68° to 91°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 77° against the DEN observations, with 0.06 in of precipitation — showers.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-04 | — | 77° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 14d · 2026-09-05 | 80° | 75° | — | — | 73° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 13d · 2026-09-06 | 83° | 72° | 68° | — | 91° | — | — | 68–91° |
| 12d · 2026-09-07 | 84° | 82° | 72° | — | 84° | — | — | 72–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-08 | 74° | 70° | 83° | — | 89° | — | — | 70–89° |
| 10d · 2026-09-09 | 77° | 66° | 80° | — | 90° | — | — | 66–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-10 | 69° | 82° | 82° | — | 85° | — | — | 69–85° |
| 8d · 2026-09-11 | 67° | 79° | 61° | 83° | 78° | — | — | 61–83° |
| 7d · 2026-09-12 | 72° | 72° | 68° | 66° | 69° | — | — | 66–72° |
| 6d · 2026-09-13 | 77° | 79° | 75° | 81° | 72° | 76° | — | 72–81° |
| 5d · 2026-09-14 | 76° | 76° | 79° | 72° | 80° | 81° | 79° | 72–81° |
| 4d · 2026-09-15 | 75° | 75° | 76° | 71° | 79° | 81° | 78° | 71–81° |
| 3d · 2026-09-16 | 75° | 73° | 73° | 76° | 82° | 78° | 80° | 73–82° |
| 2d · 2026-09-17 | 73° | 73° | 72° | 76° | 79° | 77° | 78° | 72–79° |
| 1d · 2026-09-18 | 76° | 75° | 74° | 75° | 82° | 77° | 78° | 74–82° |
| 0d · 2026-09-19 | 74° | 74° | 77° | 77° | 81° | 76° | 78° | 74–81° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.