Was the forecast right for Denver on Wed Oct 14?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Wed Oct 14 high anywhere from 38° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 51°. The day verified at 48° against the DEN observations, with 0.04 in of precipitation — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.8°. UKMO ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-29 | — | 75° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 75–79° |
| 14d · 2026-09-30 | 75° | 38° | 79° | — | 73° | — | — | 38–79° |
| 13d · 2026-10-01 | 67° | 76° | 60° | — | 82° | — | — | 60–82° |
| 12d · 2026-10-02 | 43° | 50° | 60° | — | 82° | — | — | 43–82° |
| 11d · 2026-10-03 | 53° | 71° | 61° | — | 75° | — | — | 53–75° |
| 10d · 2026-10-04 | 47° | 46° | 70° | — | 57° | — | — | 46–70° |
| 9d · 2026-10-05 | 73° | 43° | 55° | 49° | 49° | — | — | 43–73° |
| 8d · 2026-10-06 | 70° | 49° | 56° | 67° | 74° | — | — | 49–74° |
| 7d · 2026-10-07 | 67° | 69° | 55° | 70° | 71° | — | — | 55–71° |
| 6d · 2026-10-08 | 66° | 64° | 60° | 66° | 71° | 56° | 62° | 56–71° |
| 5d · 2026-10-09 | 48° | 58° | 56° | 66° | 64° | 51° | 63° | 48–66° |
| 4d · 2026-10-10 | 50° | 52° | 55° | 54° | 60° | 61° | 50° | 50–61° |
| 3d · 2026-10-11 | 49° | 49° | 51° | 51° | 49° | 54° | 50° | 49–54° |
| 2d · 2026-10-12 | — | 48° | 54° | 52° | 50° | 50° | 52° | 48–54° |
| 1d · 2026-10-13 | 50° | 50° | 51° | 51° | 52° | 50° | 53° | 50–53° |
| actual | 48° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.