Was the forecast right for Denver on Sun Oct 11?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Sun Oct 11 high anywhere from 71° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 85° against the DEN observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIGFS ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-26 | — | 62° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 62–70° |
| 14d · 2026-09-27 | 76° | 77° | 71° | — | 74° | — | — | 71–77° |
| 13d · 2026-09-28 | 83° | 59° | 71° | — | 83° | — | — | 59–83° |
| 12d · 2026-09-29 | 57° | 69° | 57° | — | 72° | — | — | 57–72° |
| 11d · 2026-09-30 | 45° | 54° | 68° | — | 58° | — | — | 45–68° |
| 10d · 2026-10-01 | 59° | 58° | 73° | — | 85° | — | — | 58–85° |
| 9d · 2026-10-02 | 62° | 61° | 81° | 67° | 82° | — | — | 61–82° |
| 8d · 2026-10-03 | 77° | 79° | 67° | 63° | 81° | — | — | 63–81° |
| 7d · 2026-10-04 | 74° | 62° | 80° | 79° | 79° | — | — | 62–80° |
| 6d · 2026-10-05 | 76° | 62° | 80° | 79° | 77° | 60° | 68° | 60–80° |
| 5d · 2026-10-06 | 77° | 64° | 84° | 76° | 71° | 77° | 77° | 64–84° |
| 4d · 2026-10-07 | 71° | 73° | 81° | 78° | 79° | 76° | 76° | 71–81° |
| 3d · 2026-10-08 | 78° | 77° | 81° | 78° | 79° | 78° | 77° | 77–81° |
| 2d · 2026-10-09 | 80° | 75° | 84° | 79° | 78° | 79° | 79° | 75–84° |
| 1d · 2026-10-10 | 80° | 77° | 84° | 80° | 80° | 81° | 84° | 77–84° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.