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Which weather model is most accurate in Milan?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Milan at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the LIML observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to ECMWF AIFS (AI), which has run cool by about 1.49°C at 3-day lead over this window.

Milan's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
UKMO (UK) 0.7° (-0.3°) 1.3° (-1.1°) — 29
DWD ICON 0.9° (-0.7°) 1.0° (-0.5°) — 29
NOAA GFS 1.0° (-0.5°) 1.2° (-0.7°) 2.1° (-0.9°) 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 1.0° (-0.8°) 1.1° (-1.1°) 1.9° (-1.3°) 29
ECMWF IFS 1.3° (-1.1°) 1.5° (-1.1°) 2.2° (-1.1°) 29
GEM (Canada) 1.4° (-1.0°) 1.6° (-1.1°) 1.9° (+0.2°) 29
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 1.6° (-1.5°) 1.7° (-1.5°) 1.9° (-1.3°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Milan point is the Linate station (LIML), 5.7 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Linate (LIML) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 17–26; it hit 21. GEM led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 17–22; it hit 22. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 15–21; it hit 21. ICON led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 18–19; it hit 22. GFS led (off 1.1°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 15–22; it hit 20. UKMO led (off 0.0°C).
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 19–23; it hit 22. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 18–23; it hit 21. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 4°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 20–24; it hit 23. GFS led (off 0.8°C); GEM ran 5°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 18–22; it hit 21. ICON led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 15–21; it hit 21. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 14 days out the models said 20–23; it hit 21. AIFS led (off 1.2°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 21–29; it hit 24. GFS led (off 0.2°C).
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 18–27; it hit 26. GFS led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 19–26; it hit 25. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 20–28; it hit 26. GFS led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 23–27; it hit 25. GFS led (off 0.1°C); ICON ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 18–26; it hit 25. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); ICON ran 1°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 20–26; it hit 25. GFS led (off 0.1°C).
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 24–27; it hit 26. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 19–23; it hit 26. GFS led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 24–26; it hit 24. UKMO led (off 0.5°C); GEM ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 19–24; it hit 24. GEM led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 19–24; it hit 26. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 15–26; it hit 24. ICON led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 24–26; it hit 25. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C).
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 21–25; it hit 29. UKMO led (off 0.6°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 21–27; it hit 28. UKMO led (off 0.4°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 23–27; it hit 28. UKMO led (off 0.6°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 18 13 days out the models said 22–28; it hit 26. UKMO led (off 1.3°C); ICON ran 4°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 20–29; it hit 24. ICON led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 4°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 21–30; it hit 28. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 17–31; it hit 27. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 23–27; it hit 29. GEM led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 21–31; it hit 27. ICON led (off 0.6°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 24–30; it hit 26. ICON led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 21–25; it hit 26. ICON led (off 0.8°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 21–31; it hit 22. ECMWF led (off 0.7°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 24–32; it hit 26. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 26–30; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 27–28; it hit 33. GEM led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 22–34; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 26–28; it hit 34. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 4 13 days out the models said 23–28; it hit 35. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 3 12 days out the models said 22–27; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 1°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 2 11 days out the models said 25–33; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 10 days out the models said 28–33; it hit 31. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 31 9 days out the models said 28–32; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 8 days out the models said 27–30; it hit 31. UKMO led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 29 7 days out the models said 27–29; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Fri Aug 28 6 days out the models said 25–33; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Aug 27 5 days out the models said 28–32; it hit 31. GFS led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 26 4 days out the models said 29–31; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Aug 25 3 days out the models said 26–29; it hit 29. GFS led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Aug 19 8 days out the models said 26–33; it hit 33. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 18 7 days out the models said 24–35; it hit 34. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 17 6 days out the models said 24–35; it hit 31. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 16 5 days out the models said 30–37; it hit 34. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 15 4 days out the models said 33–37; it hit 35. GEM led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 14 3 days out the models said 33–37; it hit 36. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.

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